Moving towards 2015, Human Resource professionals are
once again faced with many uncertainties that may have a dramatic impact on compensation
program administration. First, there are
the mid-term elections in November. A
shift to a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate would create a
stalemate in Washington, D.C. in terms of new legislation that would impact human
resources, especially compensation program administration. Second, chaos around the world and the continued
threat of terrorism’s impact on the global economy creates an uncertain
environment within which we must plan and operate effectively.
United
State Economic Forecast for 2015
"Despite a slow
economic recovery through 2013, U.S. growth still is expected to pick up…After
currently forecast 3.0% growth in 2014, we now project 2015 growth to also be
3.0%...Central to their accelerating growth thesis is the idea that the fiscal
drag will become less and less onerous. And this will be offset by a
Federal Reserve that begins to tighten monetary policy. This is a theme we
expect to be common across most economic forecasts. Indeed, UBS's 3% growth
expectation represents the median expectation among Wall Street economists. By
mid-2015, we expect the Fed to start gradually raising the Federal funds rate
to 0.75% by the end of 2015. In this setting, the benchmark yield on the
10-year Treasury note is projected to rise to 3.2% by the end of next year and
3.5% by the end of 2015. UBS warns prolonged fiscal restraint would certainly
be bad news. Furthermore, Obamacare could discourage hiring by small
businesses.”
United States
Compensation Budgeting Forecasts for 2015
With this economic perspective as a backdrop, it is not surprising
to see most, if not all, of the major consulting firms and associations with
similar predictions for 2015 compensation budgeting. The following is a summary
of these predictions.
“Hay Group expects the 3 percent median base salary increase to hold
steady across most U.S. industries, including chemical, consumer products,
financial services, health insurance, industrial goods and utilities. Two
sectors, however, have different expectations: Oil and gas industry employees
can expect a median base salary increase of 4 percent and Hospital employees
can expect an increase of 2 percent for most employee groups. More
employers expect to tie reward programs to performance-management practices.
These programs include increasing future emphasis on improving variable-pay
programs (56 percent of respondents) and improving key non-financial rewards
such as career development opportunities (63 percent).”
In its latest study, Mercer points to the following five year
trend:
Mercer further comments that:
“As organizations strive to balance reward
programs with budgets and the need to retain critical talent, they are
analyzing key segments of their workforce and concentrating rewards on top
performers. Consequently, the range between increases to high-performing
employees and those given to lower performing employees continues to widen.
Mercer’s survey shows the highest-performing employees received average base
pay increases of 4.8% in 2014 compared to 2.6% for average performers and 0.1%
for the lowest performers.”
Following is an excerpt from WorldatWork’s latest salary
budget survey:
“‘Salary increase budgets will likely remain
close to the 3.0 percent mark until market forces require employers to raise
wages more aggressively,’ said Alison Avalos, research manager for WorldatWork.
‘Recovering from the recession is no longer driving employers’ salary budget
planning. Current salary budget increase amounts are less about a recovery from
widespread pay freezes from a few years back and more about the current
marketplace not demanding much growth in the size of pay increases for employees.’ Organizations
continue to converge on budget amounts between 2 percent and 4 percent, with 85
percent to 90 percent of all organizations landing there, depending on employee
category. The percentage of organizations not awarding increases has dropped to
2 percent to 5 percent, fairly close to historical levels.”
Total U.S. Salary
Budget Increases
|
Employee Category
|
Actual 2014
Mean
|
Actual 2014
Median
|
Projected 2015
Mean
|
Projected 2015
Median
|
Nonexempt hourly nonunion
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
Exempt salaried
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
Officers/executives
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
All
|
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
Source: WorldatWork 2014-2015 Salary
Budget Survey, preliminary findings.
|
http://www.shrm.org/hrdisciplines/compensation/articles/pages/2015-salary-budget-forecasts.aspx#sthash.sOv2leaA.dpuf
Astron’s
Perspective
One key issue not reflected in these predictions is the
compensation budget impact of the move to increase both the national and
states’ minimum wages. The following is a summary of the upcoming minimum wage
changes scheduled for 2015, as reported by Business & Legal Reports (www.blr.com):
State minimum wage changes effective December
31, 2014:
·
New
York: $8.75 (See additional
increase effective December 31, 2015)
·
West
Virginia: $8.00 (See additional
increase effective December 31, 2015)
State minimum wage changes effective January 1,
2015
·
Connecticut: $9.15
·
Hawaii: $7.75
·
Maryland: $8.00 (See additional increase effective July 1,
2015)
·
Massachusetts: $9.00
·
Rhode
Island: $9.00
·
Vermont: $9.15
State minimum wage changes effective June 1,
2015
·
Delaware: $8.25
State minimum wage changes effective July 1,
2015
·
Washington,
D.C.: $10.50
·
Maryland: $8.25
State minimum wage changes effective August 1,
2015
·
Minnesota: Large employers $9.00; Small employers $7.25
State minimum wage changes effective December
31, 2015
·
New
York: $9.00
·
West
Virginia: $8.75
The above changes, coupled with the US Federal Minimum
Wage for Federal Contract Employees at $10.10 per hour, up from the current $7.25,
will have a hidden impact on compensation budgeting. Increases in federal and state minimum wages
create compression and a domino effect on pay grade & range
structures. An organization that had set
its lowest pay grade minimum at $7.25, and employers with federal contract
workers, will have to raise that grade minimum by $2.85, or 39%. In New York
State, the minimum wage on December 2015 will increase (in two steps) from the
current $8.00 to $9.00, or 12.5%. Those employees in the lower pay grades will
have to have their pay rates adjusted to avoid pay compression. In addition to the bring to minimum
adjustments necessary for employees currently in the lowest pay grade,
attention should be paid to the salaries of employees in higher pay grades, to
avoid compression with the lowest wage earners.
There’s a lot to keep in mind as you begin your 2015
compensation budgeting. With the
uncertainty both home and abroad, maintaining and updating one’s pay structures
is more than a “plug and play” activity.
Rather, employers must keep a strategic perspective, not only on the pay
range and annual salary adjustments, but also on the use of variable
compensation and pay for performance tools, to effectively reward the truly high
performers, the employees who make the difference between an organization going
through the motions and organizational success.